Betting windows are open for one-term Dallas City Council members

Last year's freshman class on the Dallas City Council was the largest that I can remember since the inception of 14-1 election system. Half of the 14 individual council members are serving their first terms. The question for today is: How many of those are serving their only terms? Never one to shy away from stepping into the breach, here's the way I see it.

Place 7 member Carolyn Davis is toast. She's gone. Absolutely no chance she'll be back. Zero. Nada. First of all, she wasn't the choice of the voters the first time around. Billy J. Ratcliff was. Trouble was that after he filed for the election and was told he met all the qualifications to run, the City Secretary came back and said "Oh, gee, I'm so sorry, Mr. Ratcliff, but the district boundary line runs down that street there right in front of your house and, guess what?, your house is on the wrong side of that line." Ratcliff was declared ineligible, very early in the process. Trouble was, however, it wasn't early enough to remove his name from the ballot. Nevertheless, he didn't campaign and it was made clear a vote for Ratcliff was a wasted vote. STILL, HE WON THE ELECTION. Over a quarter of the voters casting votes in that district's primary cast them for Ratcliff. That's how much the people in that district favored him. Well, you'll never guess what has happened since. Ratcliff up and moved and now his residence is in the district. If he could beat Davis like a drum when he didn't campaign and wasn't eligible, think how one-sided this is going to be when he is eligible and does campaign. Not only that, Miss Davis has been an embarrassment on the council and a poor reflection on her constituents. Like I said, she's toast.

Anyone remember Joseph Hernandez? I thought not. Anyone remember Ed Oakley? I thought so. To refresh your memory, Hernandez came within 147 votes of leading Dave Neuman in the Place 3 primary and only lost to Neuman by 285 votes in the runoff. Oakley, on the other hand, surprised everyone by making the runoff against Tom Leppert for mayor. He is a expert politician and a master corraler of votes. Plus I personally witnessed Oakley during the last redistricting process, when he represented District 6, carve District 3 to his own specifications with his election to that district his sole motivating factor. There's no question he's going to be seeking some political office next year. He's not only filed all the paperwork, he recently held a very successful fundraising event WITHOUT EVEN SPECIFYING WHAT HE WAS RUNNING FOR. If he decides to seek re-election to District 3, Oakley will hand Neuman his battered hat. Newman has worked tirelessly since his election to stay in contact with his constituents and he's done a good job at those attempts. What he has failed to do, however, is really connect to these constituents, at least not as well as Oakley has. If Ed runs, Dave's gone.

After that, I don't see any of the other members of the freshman class being that vulnerable. Sheffie Kadane in District 9 and Jerry Allen in District 10 have made some major enemies because of a few of their zoning decisions. But Lake Highlands doesn't like to turn on its own and Allen didn't even face an opponent last year. (This could change, of course, if former council member Bill Blaydes, who opposed Allen's most controversial zoning decision, decides he still has a taste for active city council politics. But the last couple of times I have seen Mr. Blaydes my first thoughts were ones of concern for his health.) As for Kadane, I believe that it's going to take someone with a profile higher than that of a Jill Kotvis or a gadfly like Albert Turner (the two candidates who narrowly failed to keep Kadane from winning his place without a runoff) to unseat Kadane. Someone like Advocate publisher Rick Wamre might pull it off as might Dallas School Board member Leigh Ann Ellis. I have no idea what Wamre might do if approached, but I am convinced Miss Ellis is passionately committed to improving the Dallas school system and will remain where she is. Former members Mary Poss or Gary Griffith could win it, but I believe Miss Poss when she says she's out of elective politics and I'm not sure Griffith has the heart for it again.

Neither Vonciel Hill nor Tennell Atkins have really distinguished themselves but I think Mr. Atkins has quietly worked to solidify his position with voters in his district and Ms. Hill might be like Mr. Kadane, safe unless she has to face a real heavyweight, which makes me wonder what Larry Duncan is up to these days.

That leaves Dwyane Carraway who is not only the safest bet among the Freshmen 7 to return, but probably the safest best for re-election on the council. Carraway is so not worried about his re-election chances, he's already laying the groundwork for his mayoral campaign that will take place in 2011 if Mr. Leppert decides one term is enough or in 2015 if Leppert stays the limit. That will be the year Mr. Carraway will be term limited in his council seat as well. Works out nicely, doesn't it.