February 1st Oscar Predictions

Of course things could change radically when the Directors Guild announces its winners, but right now, among the top eight Oscar categories, there seems to be suspense over the winner in only two of them — picture and director. The best picture race seems to have narrowed down to Spotlight and The Big Short. I liked The Big Short, but I don’t think it carries the weight of a best picture Oscar winner. I know the movie has a lot of die-hard fans and I will apologize for not sharing your enthusiasm, but I simply think Spotlight is, by far, the more significant film and more worthy of the top prize.

Interestingly enough, I don’t think the directors of either of those two films has a shot at the director’s Oscar. I’m seeing that as a contest between Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu for The Revenant and George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road and my prediction is based on the fact that I don’t think the Academy wants to award Innaritu two years in a row and the members might think they will never have another shot at honoring Miller.

It also appears Mad Max: Fury Road is going to be the night’s big winner, taking home seven Oscars, far more than any other film under consideration. Spotlight and The Revenant seem to be the only other films with a chance to win more than one Academy Award and I only see them winning two each.

The other categories in this year’s Oscar race look, to me at least, like slam dunks. So here I go with my predicted winners, serving notice I have the privilege of changing my mind right up until the last minute.

Picture: Spotlight
Director: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Actress: Brie Larson, Room
Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Original Screenplay: Spotlight
Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
Cinematography: The Revenant
Costume Design: Cinderella, although Carol has an outside shot
Film Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Makeup and Hair Styling: Mad Max: Fury Road
Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
Score: The Hateful Eight
Song: "Till It Happens to You," The Hunting Ground
Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Sound Mixing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Visual Effects: Mad Max: Fury Road
Animated Feature: Inside Out
Documentary: Amy
Foreign Film: Son of Saul
Animated Short: Sanjays Super Team
Documentary Short: Body Team 12
Live Action Short: Ave Maria