Forced to amend my Oscar predictions

With today’s announcement that Viola Davis will compete for a best supporting actress Oscar that means I have to change my forecast I posted a week ago in which I had her listed as a favorite to win a best actress nomination for her role in Fences.

Viola Davis in Fences

This decision of Davis’s to move into supporting also means that Emma Stone has all but locked up this year’s best actress trophy. Davis was the only actress that could give Stone any competition. Now Stone’s main competition will come from Natalie Portman, but I don’t think Academy voters will find the depth in Portman’s performance that is so central in Stone’s.

It also means Aja Naomie King must move from my list of predicted nominees for best supporting actress to a "possible" designation. It also means I must rethink my position that Michelle Williams was the sure thing for the supporting actress Oscar.