My December rankings of the 2016 Oscar contenders

Last month's ranking in parenthesis
PICTURE
(likely nominees)
1.  La La Land (1)
2.  Manchester By the Sea (2)
3.  Moonlight (4)
4.  Fences (3)
5.  Silence (6)
6.  Lion (8)
7.  Arrival (7)
(other contenders)
8.  Loving (5)
9.  Hacksaw Ridge (T13)
10. Hell or High Water (T13)
T11. Hidden Figures (10)
T11. Jackie (9)
13. Sully (13)
14. Patriot's Day (NR)
15. Passengers (NR)
16. 20th Century Women (NR)
17. Captain Fantastic (NR)

DIRECTOR
(likely nominees)
1.  Damien Chazelle, La La Land (1)
2.  Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (3)
3.  Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea (2)
4.  Denzel Washington, Fences (4)
5.  Martin Scorsese, Silence (5)
(other contenders)
6.  Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (10)
T7. Jeff Nichols, Loving (7)
T7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (T14)
T7. Pablo Lorrain, Jackie (6)
T7. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (T14)
11. David McKenzie, Hell or High Water (NR)

ACTRESS
(likely nominees)
1.  Emma Stone, La La Land (1)
2.  Natalie Portman, Jackie (2)
3.  Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (4)
4.  Ruth Negga, Loving (3)
T5. Amy Adams, Arrival (5)
T5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (8)
(other contenders)
7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (9)
8.  Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (6)
9.  Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (10)

ACTOR
(likely nominees)
1.  Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea (1)
2.  Denzel Washington, Fences (2)
3,  Ryan Gosling, La La Land (3)
4.  Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (6)
5.  Joel Edgerton, Loving (4)
(other contenders)
6.  Viggo Mortenson, Captain Fantastic (7)
7.  Tom Hanks, Sully (5)
T8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (11)
T8, Michael Keaton, The Founder (8)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
(likely nominees)
1.  Viola Davis, Fences (1)
2.  Michelle Williams, Manchester By the Sea (2)
3.  Naomie Harris, Moonlight (3)
4.  Nicole Kidman, Lion (4)
5.  Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (T13)
(other contenders)
6.  Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (5)
7.  Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (7)
8.  Elle Fanning, 20th Century Woman (T9)
9.  Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (6)
T10. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (T13)
T10. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (T9)

SUPPORTING ACTOR
(likely nominees)
1.  Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (1)
2.  Lucas Hedges, Manchester By the Sea (2)
3.  Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (3)
4.  Dev Patel, Lion (5)
5.  Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (4)
(other contenders)
6.  Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (7)
7.  Issei Ogata, Silence (NR)
8.  Liam Neeson, Silence (6)
9.  Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (14)
10. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (10)
11. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals (NR)

NOTE: The screenplay competition got thrown into somewhat of a disarray when the Academy ruled last week rejected the Writers Guild's classification that Moonlight and Loving were adapted, not original, screenplays. Therefore, I felt I had to disregard a lot of the polling I had conducted with my pool of Academy voters before this announcement had been made and only include that which I did after. As a result, the screenplay rankings are derived from the results of only a little more than half of the 137 voters that usually participate.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
(likely nominees)
1.  Fences (1)
2.  Moonlight (NR)
3.  Arrival (2)
T4. Lion (4)
T4. Nocturnal Animals (5)
(other contenders)
6.  Silence (3)
7.  Hidden Figures (6)
8.  Love and Friendship (T9)
9.  Hacksaw Ridge (8)
T10. Elle (T11)
T10. Loving (NR)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
(likely nominees)
1.  Manchester By the Sea (1)
2.  La La Land (2)
3.  Hell or High Water (7)
4.  Jackie (4)
5,  20th Century Women (6)
(other contenders)
6.  Captain Fantastic (8)
7.  The Lobster (T9)
8.  Zootopia (T9)

CINEMATOGRAPHY
(likely nominees)
1.  La La Land (1)
2.  Silence (3)
3.  Arrival (2)
4.  Moonlight (5)
5.  Jackie (4)
(other contenders)
6.  Nocturnal Animals (6)
T7. Hacksaw Ridge (NR)
T7. The Jungle Book (T7)
T9. Café Society (T13)
T9. Doctor Strange (T13)
T9. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (12)
T12. Hail, Caesar (10)
T12. Hidden Figures (NR)
T12. Live By Night (T7)

COSTUME DESIGN
(likely nominees)
1.  Jackie (1)
2.  La La Land (2)
3.  Silence (3)
4.  Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
5.  Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (T5)
(other contenders)
6.  Allied (8)
7.  Live By Night (T5)
8.  Love and Friendship (9)
T9.  Captain Fantastic (T10)
T9. Hidden Figures (T10)
11. The Handmaiden (NR)

FILM EDITING
(likely nominees)
1.  La La Land (1)
2.  Silence (2)
3.  Moonlight (5)
4,  Jackie (3)
5.  Hacksaw Ridge (4)
(other contenders)
6.  Arrival (T6)
7.  Sully (NR)
8.  The Jungle Book (T6)
T9.  Manchester By the Sea (T12)
T9. Nocturnal Animals (T8)
11. Deepwater Horizon (10)
12. Hell or High Water (NR)

MAKEUP AND HAIR
(likely nominees)
1.  Jackie (1)
2.  Silence (2)
3.  Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (3)
(other contenders)
4.  Florence Foster Jenkins (T4)
5.  Doctor Strange (NR)
6.  Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (T4)
7.  Hacksaw Ridge (NR)

PRODUCTION DESIGN
(likely nominees)
1.  La La Land (1)
2.  Jackie (3)
3.  Silence (2)
4.  Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (4)
5.  Live By Night (9)
(other contenders)
6.  Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (7)
7.  The Jungle Book (6)
8.  Hail, Caesar! (10)
T9.  Hacksaw Ridge (NR)
T9. Rules Don't Apply (5)
T11. Allied (NR)
T11. Arrival (NR)
13. Florence Foster Jenkins

SCORE
(likely nominees)
1.  La La Land (1)
2.  Jackie (2)
3.  Arrival (6)
4.  Moonlight (T12)
T5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (4)
T5. Silence (3)
(other contenders)
7. Lion (5)
8.  Nocturnal Animals (T9)
T9. Florence Foster Jenkins (NR)
T9. The Jungle Book (T7)
11. Hidden Figures (T7)
T12.  Manchester By the Sea (NR)
T12. Zootopia (NR)
T14. Moana (NR)
T14. Patriot's Day (NR)

SOUND EDITING
(likely nominees)
1.  Hacksaw Ridge (1)
2.  La La Land (3)
3.  Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2)
4.  Silence (T5)
5.  Arrival (7)
(other contenders)
6.  The Jungle Book (4)
7.  Sully (NR)
8.  Deepwater Horizon (T5)
9.  Doctor Strange (NR)

SOUND MIXING
(likely nominees)
1.  La La Land (1)
2.  Hacksaw Ridge (2)
3.  Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (3)
4.  Silence (4)
5.  Arrival (T7)
(other contenders)
6.  The Jungle Book (5)
7.  Sully (NR)
8.  Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (T7)
9.  Allied (NR)
T10. Deepwater Horizon (6)
T10. Live By Night (NR)

VISUAL EFFECTS
(likely nominees)
1.  The Jungle Book (2)
2.  Doctor Strange (1)
3.  Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (3)
4.  Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (4)
5.  Arrival (T5)
(other contenders)
6.  Captain America: Civil War (T5)
7.  The BFG (10)
8.  Passengers (NR)

ANIMATED FEATURE
(likely nominees)
1.  Zootopia (1)
2.  Kubo and the Two Strings (2)
3.  Moana (3)
4.  Finding Dory (4)
5.  The Red Turtle (5)
(other contenders)
6.  The Little Prince (8)
7.  Sing (6)
T8.  My Life as a Zucchini (10)
T8.  Sausage Party (7)
10. Trolls (9)