Oscar Nomination Scorecard

The Oscar nomination process is fairly simple. Each voter receives a ballot in which they are asked to vote, in order, for films in their respective crafts and for best picture. In other words, cinematographers get to select five films in the cinematography category and five for best picture. Writers get to vote for both original and adapted screenplay and best picture. The voters are asked to list the movies from their top preference to their fifth preference. In this way, five points are awarded for each picture listed first, four for second, etc., except, of course, in those categories that will only have three nominees: animated film, makeup and visual effects.

Each year around this time I begin polling Oscar voters in each of the branches who are willing to tell me how they would vote if they had to return their envelopes today (they will have to return them by the end of the year). The one thing I have found, however, is that I need to find more reliable sources in the music category.

I don't list the documentary categories, the shorts or foreign film because those are selected by committees, not the main group of Oscar voters.

In each category, the films are listed according to the percentage of the total points they received, which should give you an idea of which actors and what films are the leading contenders in each category and how they compare to one another within each category. The totals listed come out less than 100% in each category, because I eliminated a lot of films at the bottom of each category that received small percentages. The top five in each category (the top three in Animated, Make-Up, Visual Effects) should be the nominees, however, if the percentages are close between the fifth and sixth film, anything can happen. Here are the results of my latest polling.

PICTURE
Atonement 30.2%
No Country for Old Men 17.9%
American Gangster 11.7%
There Will Be Blood 10.5%
Sweeney Todd 7.4%
Juno 6.2%
Into the Wild 4.3%
Charlie Wilson’s War 3.1%
The Kite Runner 2.5%
Michael Clayton 1.9%
In the Valley of Elah .6%
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly .3%

ANIMATED FEATURE
Ratatouille 46..9%
The Simpson’s Movie 25%
Persepolis 21.9%

DIRECTOR
Joe Wright: Atonement 26.7%
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men 19.9%
Ridley Scott, American Gangster 15.5%
Paul Thomas Anderson: There Will Be Blood 13.7%
Tim Burton, Sweeny Todd 6.8%
Sean Penn, Into the Wild 5%
Mike Nichols: Charlie Wilson’s War 3.1%
Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead 2.5%
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly 1.9%
Marc Foster, The Kite Runner 1.2%

ACTOR
Daniel Day Lewis: There Will Be Blood 29.2%
James McAvoy, Atonement 17.4%
Johnny Depp, Sweeny Todd 16.8%
Denzel Washington, American Gangster 15.5%
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah 7.5%
George Clooney, Michael Clayton 4.3%
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises 3.7%
Tom Hanks, Charlie Wilson’s War 1.9%
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild 1.2%

ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose 25.9%
Ellen Page, Juno 21.6%
Julie Christie, Away From Her 17.9%
Keira Knightley, Atonement 11.7%
Amy Adams, Enchanted 6.8%
Laura Linney, The Savages 6.2%
Cate Blanchett, The Golden Age 5.6%
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart 2.5%

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men 30.8%
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton 17.3%
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild 16%
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War 11.1%
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford 9.3%
Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood 6.2%
Philip Bosco, The Savages 5.6%

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There 32.3%
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone 14.3%
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement 13.7%
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton 9.9%
Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd 7.5%
Jennifer Jason Leigh, Margot at the Wedding 5.6%
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement 5%
Romola Garai, Atonement 3.7%
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild 2.5%
Kelly McDonald, No Country for Old Men 1.2%
Marisa Tomei, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead .6%

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Michael Clayton 25.4%
Juno 24.6%
The Savages 21.4%
Ratatouille 11.1%
Eastern Promises 4.8%
I’m Not There 4.7%
Things We Lost in the Fire 3.2%
Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead 1.6%
Knocked Up 1.5%

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

No Country for Old Men 27.5%
Atonement 26.7%
There Will Be Blood 18.3%
Charlie Wilson’s War 9.9%
Into the Wild 9.2%
The Kite Runner 3.1%
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly 2.3%

ORIGINAL SCORE
Atonement 25.8%
The Golden Compass 14%
Ratatouille 12.9%
Beowulf 10.6%
Into the Wild 8.6%
There Will Be Blood 8.5%
Lust, Caution 5.4%
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford 4.4%
The Kite Runner 4.3%
No Country for Old Men 2.2%

FILM EDITING
Atonement 18.8%
No Country for Old Men 17.7%
American Gangster 16.7%
Sweeny Todd 15.6%
There Will Be Blood 9.4%
Charlie Wilson’s War 6.3%
I’m Not There 4.2%
The Golden Compass 3.1%
The Kite Runner 3%
The Bourne Ultimatum 2.1%
Michael Clayton 2%

CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford 26%
There Will Be Blood 20.8%
Atonmement 18.8%
No Country for Old Men 9.4%
Sweeny Todd 9.2%
I’m Not There 6.3%
Charlie Wilson’s War 3.1%
Lust, Caution 2.1%

ART DIRECTION
Sweeny Todd 27.1%
Atonement 20.8%
There Will Be Blood 15.6%
The Golden Compass 10.4%
The Golden Age 10.1%
Hairspray 6.3%
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford 6.1%

COSTUME DESIGN
Sweeny Todd 29.2%
Atonement 24%
The Golden Age 19.8%
Hairspray 12.5%
The Golden Compass 4.2%
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford 3.9%
Love in the Time of Cholera 2.1%

MAKE-UP
Sweeny Todd 47.5%
Hairspray 17.5%
The Golden Age 17.2%
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End 7.5%
Love in the Time of Cholera 5%

SOUND MIXING
Sweeny Todd 28.1%
Transformers 26%
Beowulf 11.5%
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End 9.4%
Hairspray 8.3%
Spider-Man 3 5.2%
300 4.2%

SOUND EDITING
Transformers 33.3%
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End 18.4%
Spider-Man 3 16.1%
Beowulf 13.8%
Ratatouille 6.9%
The Golden Compass 6.6%

VISUAL EFFECTS

Transformers 50%
The Golden Compass 25%
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End 12.5%
300 7.5%