Oscar Picks

It's put up or shut up time. For the past couple of weeks, I have been listing my predictions on who will win what Oscar, but these picks have been pretty easy to make. (That's not to say they are correct, just easy). Now it's time to go through the entire list so everyone can see where I go wrong.

Picture
If any picture other than Slumdog Millionaire wins this it will be an even bigger shock than Brokeback Mountain not winning three years ago.

Director
Slumdog Millionaire director Danny Boyle won the Directors Guild award and, thus, he wins this Oscar as well.

Actor
Most argue this is a two-person race, but I think any one of three nominess could win this: Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon, Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler or Sean Penn for Milk. I'm going with Penn for the following reasons: 1. (and most important) He gave the best performance by an actor in a leading role; 2. He is the finest actor of his generation and this is a way for the Academy to acknowledge that fact; 3. If an actress as limited as Hilary Swank can win two acting Oscars within five years, certainly someone as great as Penn can win two in the same period of time; 4. Milk is the best of the three films; 5. I'm convinced more voters saw Penn's performance than the other two; 6. I don't think Rourke resonates well among women voters; and 7. Voters based in California (i.e., the majority of voters) will want to atone for the passage of Prop. 8.

Actress
Everyone says this is a two-person race between Kate Winslet for The Reader and Meryl Streep for Doubt. I think it is a two-person race between Winslet and Melissa Leo for Frozen River and an upset by Ms. Leo here would not surprise me in the least. But Winslet wants it badly, she's been campaigning for it like mad, and I think the Academy feels it owes her.

Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight, of course (unless voters actually go with the best supporting performance and award Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road, but I don't expect that to happen).

Supporting Actress
All the signs, all the precursors, all the odds point to a win by Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona, which is exactly why I'm going for the upset: Viola Davis for Doubt.

Original Screenplay
My heart says WALL-E and my head says Milk, and this time I'm going to go with my head.

Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire in a walk

Foreign Language Film
Waltz With Bashir outduels The Class.

Documentary Feature
Man on Wire

Animated Film
Personally, I thought WALL-E was the best film of the year and it's a shame that this might be the only Oscar it will win.

Art Direction
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Cinematography
Slumdog Millionaire

Costume Design
The rule here is always go with the film with the most nominations which means The Curious Case of Benjamin Button should win this. However, this time I'm flaunting the rule and picking The Duchess.

Film Editing
Slumdog Millionaire

Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Score
Slumdog Millionaire

Song
"Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire in a close one over Peter Gabriel's "Down to Earth" from WALL-E

Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
These are two Oscars that WALL-E deserves to win and quite easily could win. But for some reason, the Academy, most of the time, doesn't go with the film that deserves to win in these categories, but the loudest film in these categories. Therefore, I'm picking The Dark Knight to take home these two Oscars.

Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Animated Short
I'm hearing rumors about a Pixar revolt and if that materializes then La Maison en Petits Cubes will win this, but my money's going to stay with Presto.

Live Action Short
Toyland (Spielzeugland)

Documentary Short
The Witness: From the Balcony of Room 306