Oscar Predictions: Actress

Not because she deserves it -- she doesn't -- but because she's earned it and I believe the Academy is thinking right along these same lines.

Kate Winslet doesn't deserve the Oscar because her performance in "The Reader" was not the best performance of the year by an actress in a leading role. Her performance ranks below three of her fellow nominees -- Anne Hathaway, Melissa Leo and Meryl Streep -- and below another that didn't even get nominated: Kristin Scott Thomas in "I've Loved You So Long." Now, if Ms. Winslet had been nominated for her best performance (in "Revolutionary Road"), I might have reconsidered this assessment.

She's earned it however for a fine body of work during the last 15 years: "Heavenly Creatures" (my introduction to Kate Winslet), "Sense and Sensibility," "Titanic," "Quills," "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind," "Finding Neverland." and "Little Children," just to name the highlights. Except for Ms. Streep, none of the other nominated actresses has anything close to this kind of track record and Ms. Streep has already received two Oscars (although her last win came two years before Ms. Winslet made "Heavenly Creatures"). I also think a lot of the Academy members will be voting for her for "Revolutionary Road" and not "The Reader."

Given all this plus the fact she's been campaigning for this award like mad, I think it's a pretty safe bet to declare Kate Winslet the winner of this Oscar.