Normally the first quarter in any calendar year is a famine period for serious film lovers. That's because producers want to push their quality films to later in the year for awards consideration (figuring Oscar voters, as an example, have extremely short memories).
However, I have three reasons to think that the first quarter of 2010 might offer some good, serious fare. I came to that conclusion after seeing this trailer for Paul Greengrass' Green Zone, which comes across as nothing more than Jason Bourne Goes to Iraq, complete with Jason himself, Matt Damon, in the lead role. I've even heard from sources that this film was originally planned for release late this year, but pushed it to 2010 because it was believed the awards season could handle only one Iraq movie, and that movie was going to be The Hurt Locker.
Then there's Martin Scorsese's Shutter Island. Judging from this trailer, I'm not expecting an awards-caliber film here, just a damn good movie-going experience like Scorsese delivered with Cape Fear, After Hours and The Last Waltz. This film also was originally scheduled for this year but pushed back because Paramount felt it would conflict with other films the studio wanted to push for Oscars.
The final reason I think the first quarter of 2010 will be better than average is Tim Burton's Alice in Wonderland, the trailer of which is available here.