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Unlike last year, when Slumdog Millionaire was a slam dunk almost from the word "go," handicapping this year's Oscar race is going to be a little bit tougher. Up until today I thought Up in the Air was the distinct leader over The Hurt Locker. Then the Screen Actors Guild posted its nominations and Air wasn't among the five finalists in the ensemble cast category, SAG's best picture Oscar equivalent. It's been almost 15 years, back when Braveheart won the best picture Oscar, that a film has taken that award and not been nominated by SAG for its entire cast.
What makes Air's omission even more shocking was that it received three other nominations and no other film received more.
In looking over the list of nominees, I could see the lead categories perfectly forecasting the Oscar finalists. I'm not so sure in the supporting -- I can't see the Academy giving a nod to Diane Kruger, Woody Harrelson or Matt Damon, although I could change my mind when I get around to my next Oscar balloting. I'm convinced Julianne Moore will be an Oscar nominee, bumping Kruger, and I hear momentum is building for Alec Baldwin in It's Complicated.
Again I'm surprised to see the love given by SAG to Inglourious Basterds. This could be this year's equivalent to last year's The Reader -- not much admired by the critical establishment (except, of course, for Christoph Waltz -- you can take his Oscar win to bank), but lauded by the award-givers.
I'm now thinking The Hurt Locker is going to be the early favorite for best picture. Its director, Kathryn Bigelow, is already considered the leading candidate to win an Oscar for her work. It's also going to get a tremendous lift from the fact that it comes out on DVD on Jan. 12. Oscar nomination ballots are due back to the Academy 11 days later. I'm thinking a lot of voters are going to wait until the last minute to fill out their ballots this season. And SAG gave the picture one of its five ensemble slots and the acting branch of the Academy comprises almost 21 percent of the entire voting membership, so actors control the best picture contest. I'm also going out on a limb to say that Locker's main competitor will now come from Avatar, the picture from Bigelow's former husband James Cameron. It finally had its premiere last night and, both critics and audiences are swooning (the audience at Mann's Chinese in Hollywood gave it a standing ovation).
What makes Air's omission even more shocking was that it received three other nominations and no other film received more.
In looking over the list of nominees, I could see the lead categories perfectly forecasting the Oscar finalists. I'm not so sure in the supporting -- I can't see the Academy giving a nod to Diane Kruger, Woody Harrelson or Matt Damon, although I could change my mind when I get around to my next Oscar balloting. I'm convinced Julianne Moore will be an Oscar nominee, bumping Kruger, and I hear momentum is building for Alec Baldwin in It's Complicated.
Again I'm surprised to see the love given by SAG to Inglourious Basterds. This could be this year's equivalent to last year's The Reader -- not much admired by the critical establishment (except, of course, for Christoph Waltz -- you can take his Oscar win to bank), but lauded by the award-givers.
I'm now thinking The Hurt Locker is going to be the early favorite for best picture. Its director, Kathryn Bigelow, is already considered the leading candidate to win an Oscar for her work. It's also going to get a tremendous lift from the fact that it comes out on DVD on Jan. 12. Oscar nomination ballots are due back to the Academy 11 days later. I'm thinking a lot of voters are going to wait until the last minute to fill out their ballots this season. And SAG gave the picture one of its five ensemble slots and the acting branch of the Academy comprises almost 21 percent of the entire voting membership, so actors control the best picture contest. I'm also going out on a limb to say that Locker's main competitor will now come from Avatar, the picture from Bigelow's former husband James Cameron. It finally had its premiere last night and, both critics and audiences are swooning (the audience at Mann's Chinese in Hollywood gave it a standing ovation).
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