Why I think "Speech" will beat "Network" for best picture

The consensus right now is that the Oscar race for best picture is between two films, The Social Network, and The King's Speech. If that's true, and I have no reason to doubt its veracity, then I'm leaning to Speech as the winner. I have several reasons for thinking this way, including the fact that I heard an Academy screening of The King's Speech Saturday in Los Angeles received the most enthusiastic reception of any film in five years. But I'm also convinced Speech is going to get a more positive reception from Oscar voters because it is a film populated by characters audiences will be rooting for while The Social Network is all about unlikeable individuals. And, finally, Speech has an edge because it is more of an actors' picture while Network is more of a writers' picture and the actors branch of the Academy outnumbers the writer's branch 1,205 to 382.

I am also leaning to the notion that this could be one of those occasions where one picture wins the best picture Oscar and the other gets the director's trophy.

But, of course, it's still early and anything could happen. This time last month I was sure that Annette Bening  would finally win a best actress Oscar, but now I hear that Natalie Portman may be the leading contender with Nicole Kidman coming up on the outside.