December's Oscar Forecast: Best Picture, Director

Listed in order from most likely to least likely to be nominated.

Best Picture
1.  Lincoln
2.  Zero Dark Thirty
3.  Les Miserables
4.  Argo
5.  Silver Linings Playbook
6.  Life of Pi
7.  Beasts of the Southern Wild
8.  The Master
9.  Django Unchained
10. Amour
11. Flight
12. Moonrise Kingdom
13. The Impossible
14. The Dark Knight Rises
15. Anna Karenina
16. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
17. Skyfall
18. Hitchcock
19. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
(I now wouldn't be surprised to see the list cut after No. 6)

Director
1.  Ben Affleck, Argo
2.  Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
3.  Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
4.  Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
5.  David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
6.  Ang Li, Life of Pi
7.  Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
8.  Michael Haneke, Amour