Another two-film Oscar race

Two years ago it was The Hurt Locker vs. Avatar. Last year it was The King’s Speech vs The Social Network. It appears this year’s Oscar race is going to be a two picture contest as well: The Descendants vs. War Horse. Right now I’m giving The Descendants a slight edge because Alexander Payne has been overlooked in the past whereas Steven Spielberg has two directing and one picture Oscar to his credit. Here, in order, are the Top 10 candidates for Best Picture for 2011, as of today:
The Descendants
War Horse
The Artist
J. Edgar
Midnight in Paris
The Help
Moneyball
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
The Tree of Life

Here, in order, are the Top 5 candidates for Best Director for 2011, as of today:
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Steven Spielberg, War Horse
Michel Hazanabvicius, The Artist
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar

As you can see, the director choices mirror the top five picture choices, which usually doesn’t happen. I do see support for Eastwood’s J. Edgar fading and while The Help has an excellent chance for a best picture nomination, support for its director, Tate Taylor, is extremely weak. The director with the best chance of cracking the top five right now appears to be David Fincher for The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.