How many films will be Oscar nominated for best picture?

According to the new rules announced earlier this year, as few as five and as many as 10 pictures will be nominated for a best picture Oscar for 2011. So it’s as much fun to guess how many will be nominated along with who and what will be nominated. Right now I’m putting the over/under at seven and here’s the ones I think will make the cut (listed alphabetically):
The Artist
The Descendants (a shoo-in)
J. Edgar
The Help (a shoo-in)
Midnight in Paris
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse (a shoo-in)

If the max of 10 are nominated, I would add: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Moneyball and The Tree of Life.

Right now the directing nominees appear to be:
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar
Michael Hazanavicus, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Steven Spielberg, War Hose

Actor
George Clooney, The Descendants (a shoo in)
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Actress
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help (a shoo-in)
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

The supporting contests are still too close to call. On the male side, Christopher Plummer will definitely be nominated (and is the current favorite to win) for The Beginniers and you can also rest assured Kenneth Branagh will be nominated for My Week with Marilyn. The other three spots could be filled by Jim Broadbent (The Iron Lady), Albert Brooks (Drive), George Clooney (The Ides of March), Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Nick Nolte (Warrior), or David Thewlis (War Horse).

Octavia Spencer from The Help is the only sure thing in the supporting actress category. Any of these actresses could claim the other four nods: Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close), Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life or The Help), Judi Dench (J. Edgar), Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids), Vanessa Redgrave (Corolanus), Emily Watson (War Hose) and Sahailene Wooley (The Descendants).