Ever heard the term "dependency ratio"? It's important

The New York Times has a fascinating story today about population forecasts that predicts by the year 2050, 72 percent of the American population will either be above the age of 64 or younger than 18. This percentage is apparently called the "dependency ratio." That ratio today is higher than I thought it might be--around 60 percent.

Much of government spending--whether it's in the form of retirement benefits, health care or schooling--is devoted to programs for this group. What will the political composition of the country that will drive policies look like? The article says that by 2050, 23 percent of the workforce (those outside the dependency ratio) will be foreign born and many of them will be ineligible to vote.

At the risk of drastically alarming the folks in Farmers Branch, it is estimated that 19 percent of all Americans will be foreign born by 2050 (interestingly enough, that's the percentage of foreign-born residents living in Canada and Australia today) and the share of Hispanic residents will more than double to almost 29 percent. (Births will account for a large share of the Hispanic as well as the Asian population growth which is why the Hispanic population percentage is significantly higher than the foreign-born percentage.)

What all this boils down to is this: By the year 2050, those over 64 (a population that will include my son) will have the most powerful political voice in the country.

In a somewhat related story, the Times also reports that the economy of Arizona is weakening while the number of illegal immigrants seems to be dropping. No one is sure whether the illegal immigrants are leaving the state because of the economic downtown or whether the economic downturn is being caused by illegals leaving Arizona, which recently passed some of the toughest immigration laws in the country.