Oscar predictions you shouldn't take to the bank

Only two of this year's Oscar races hold much interest for me--the ones for actress and supporting actress. Everything else seems pretty cut and dried and I'm going for the chalk in those categories: "No Country for Old Me," for picture, directing, adapted screenplay and supporting actor; Daniel Day Lewis for actor; and Diablo Cody's original screenplay for "Juno." I'll get to the technical categories in a minute.

Julie Christie is the favorite to win the actress Oscar, although I've read many pundits who are predicting an Ellen Page upset for "Juno." While there always seems to a major upset in at least one of the top 6 categories, I don't see it coming here. I don't expect the Academy to give this award this year to an actress who isn't even old enough buy a round of drinks to celebrate the honor. When the really younger set wins, it's usually in a supporting category. If someone else's name other than Christie's is called, my money would be on Marion Cotillard and, in fact, although I'm predicting Julie Christie to win tonight, I would be overjoyed if Ms. Cotillard took home the Oscar. Her nominated performance as Edith Piaf is one of the finest I've seen in many a year. As others have noted, actresses in foreign language parts don't often win this award (the last was Sophia Loren 47 years ago, although many are forgetting Roberto Benigni winning best actor for a foreign language role just a decade ago). But I think Ms. Cotillard's real handicap is that the film wasn't all that good. "Away From Her," on the other hand, is one of the best films of 2007. So in this race, I'm going with my head and not my heart.

In the supporting actress race, however, I'm going with my heart over my head. Everyone tells me this is Cate Blanchett's Oscar although Ruby Dee, on the strength of her support from fellow actors who make up 20 percent of the Academy's voters, could win this award. I understand why they are saying this. Although Ms. Dee only has three scenes in the film "American Gangster," and none of them are as defining as a lot of critics claim, this could be one of those sentimental votes. Ms. Dee is well respected as was her late husband Ossie Davis and just look at how many nominations and Oscars Kathryn Hepburn received after Spencer Tracy died. I also think Ms. Blanchett was probably liked more by the critics than many of the Oscar voters who never really saw her in "I'm Not There." She doesn't appear in the film until the second hour of its running time and many Oscar voters I talked to disliked the film so intensely they turned their screeners off before they ever saw her. Because of that, Harvey Winstein, who is running Blanchett's campaign for this Oscar, inserted edited DVDs of just her scenes in the movie in Daily Variety. (He couldn't mail them to Academy members, because NARAS rules prohibit the mailing of two different versions of the same film.) He's hoping they will be viewed by enough voters to make a difference.

When the nominations were first announced, Amy Ryan was considered the co-favorite with Blanchett and many are saying her performance as the uncaring mother in "Gone Baby Gone" will still win out, although I heard her stock was falling in the last couple of weeks.

So there you have it: A close race among Blanchett, Dee and Ryan. So who am I going with? Tilda Swinton. Don't ask me why, it's just a hunch and like I said there is always one big upset. This is where I think it will come. I also think "Michael Clayton" could be the movie the Academy likes the most, even if they don't think it's the "best" movie and this is a great place to display their affection for it. I also think within the industry, Swinton is the best liked actress of the nominated five.

In other races, "Ratatouille," which was not only the best animated film of the year, but perhaps the best overall motion picture, should win for animation and stands a real good chance of winning for score, although I'm going to go with original score of "Atonement," which I'm also picking for costume design.

"There Will Be Blood" should prevail in the art direction and cinematography categories and I'm picking "Transformers," believe it or not, to go home with three Oscars, for sound editing, sound mixing and visual effects. "The Bourne Ultimatum" should win for film editing simply because it had far more edits than any other nominees, and "La Vie En Rose" is my choice in the makeup category because of the way the artists made Marion Cotillard age so gracefully and perfectly. Other awards:
Foreign Language Film: "The Counterfeiters"
Original song: "Falling Slowly" from "Once"
Documentary feature: "No End in Sight"
Documentary short: "Freeheld"
Animated short: "Peter & the Wolf"
Live action short: "Tanghi Argentini"