An early look at likely Oscar nominees

This list of possible nominees in the eight top categories is not based on any polling data -- I will begin polling Academy members later this month. These are strictly educated guesses based on what I've seen, heard and read so far this year. It should be noted that the Toronto International Film Festival kicks off next week and prior to last year's TIFF there was no talk at all about Mickey Rourke's performance in The Wrestler or the film Slumdog Millionaire. (All nominees listed alphabetically.)

Picture
Amelia
Capitalism: A Love Story
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
Nine
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Rob Marshall, Nine
Lone Scherfig, An Education

Actor
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Matt Damon, The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Viggo Mortenson, The Road

Actress
Abbie Cornish, Bright Star
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Hilary Swank, Amelia

Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Richard Gere, Amelia
Richard Kind, A Serious Man
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Judi Dench, Nine
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious
Rachel Weisz, The Lovely Bones

Adapted Screenplay
An Education
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
Up in the Air

Original Screenplay
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
A Serious Man
The Tree of Life
Up