Where Texas goes, others are sure to follow

Yesterday I suggested that just because Nebraska is leaving the Big 12 Conference, there is no reason why the conference could not survive simply by adding another team to replace the Cornhuskers. It's beginning to look more and more like the Big 12 is on its last legs and, ironically, in a world of amateur athletics, the reason is money. And the leader in this revolt is the University of Texas.

Texas is in a great spot right now because Nebraska will probably be cast as the villain in the death of the Big 12. Actually, Texas will be the prime instigator. And what Texas does drives all the other members of the conference who will, depending on what Texas does, stay or go.

The reason is simple: Texas earns more money through college athletics than any other university in the country. No other university comes close. Ohio State is second on the money earning list. but it earns only about half of what Texas does. Today, Texas earns about $11 million a year through television revenue and, according to the Big 12's weighted distribution formula, each of the other 11 schools in the conference earn somewhat less. The reason why Nebraska is leaving for the Big 10 is that each school in that conference receives $22 million in television revenue because the Big 10 is the only conference in the country with its own cable television channel. (This is why I don't think the Big 10 is going to stop its expansion with Nebraska, which won't attract that many more television viewers to its network. I see the conference going after Rutgers next to bring in the New York City viewers and, of course, its ultimate target is Notre Dame.)

The PAC 10 conference is also dreaming of mega TV revenues and it sees the way to do it is through a mega conference. Texas, on the other hand, sees a way to become even richer by more than doubling its TV revenues and it will lead five other Big 12 schools with it to what presumably will be a renamed PAC 10 conference.

The bottom line here is the Big 12 does not have to die. But it will, because it doesn't have the big bucks to survive. And Nebraska will be blamed for its demise, but the real perpetrator will be my beloved alma mater.