Thursday, January 20, 2011

Predicting the major Oscar nominations

The biggest surprises of this year's Oscar contest is that there are no surprises looming. Of course something stupid like The Blind Side being nominated for best picture last year, could happen again. I mean how could any sane person predict something like that? It also seems all the races except supporting actress are over already as well. I guess the only debate is whether True Grit's Hailee Steinfeld gets nominated in the lead or supporting actress category. I always thought she belonged in supporting, but a lot of folks are pushing her for lead. Here's how I see the nominees shaping up (with an asterisk signifying the winner in each category):

PICTURE
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
* The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
I would rather see Winter's Bone in that list in place of The Town, but I'm afraid it's not going to happen.

ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
* Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
I have less confidence in Wahlberg than any of the other picks. Robert Duvall could get in there if enough voters see Get Low. The same for Javier Bardem for Biutiful or Ryan Gosling for Blue Valentine.

ACTRESS
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
* Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Moore is the weak link in this five but it think she gets the nomination over Lesley Manville for Another Year, Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine or even Naomi Replace for The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
* Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
I would love to see John Hawkes get nominated for Winter's Bone, but I'm afraid his chances are as good as that of the picture's.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
* Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
* David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David O. Russell, The Fighter

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
* The King's Speech

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 Hours
* The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
The Town could bump 127 Hours.

OTHER LIKELY WINNERS
Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Art Direction: Inception
Cinematography: Inception
Costumes: Alice in Wonderland
Documentary: Inside Job
Editing: The Social Network
Makeup: Alice in Wonderland
Visual Effects: Inception (possibly unanimously)

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