It's 'Blood' vs. 'Country' for top Oscar

It's now official. The Oscar race for best picture is now down to "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood." Two films that have been mentioned prominently, "Atonement" and "Sweeney Todd," now not only don't have a shot, they stand a good chance of not even being nominated.

What makes me say that? One of the best Oscar barometers, the Directors Guild of America, announced its nominees today and they included Paul Thomas Anderson for "There Will Be Blood" and Joel and Ethan Coen for "No Country For Old Men." Because these two films have the majority of the critics awards, you can bet they are the finalists for best picture. The others nominated by the DGA are Sam Gilroy for "Michael Clayton," Sean Penn for "Into the Wild" and Julian Schnabel for "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly."

Usually, one director nominated does not have his picture nominated. Let's assume that the five listed above are also nominated by the directors branch for Oscar consideration. I would guess that among those five, the movie that might not get nominated would be "Diving Bell." But I also think it's far more likely that "Juno" would be in that spot. not "Sweeney Todd" or "Atonement."

Also, if those DGA-nominated directors were the Oscar nominees, that would make Penn the favorite to win because he would get the support of Oscar's largest voting group, the actors branch.