Writers strike influences Oscar forecast

Some time this weekend, I will post my final predictions for the Oscar nominations, but right now I'm thinking that the movie I once thought was a lock to win best picture, "Atonement," won't even get nominated for the prize.

Why? For one thing, it was ignored by the three primary film guilds: the producers, the directors and the writers.

But there's another, more subtle, clue. The big studios are not making any push to settle the Writers Guild strike. If the strike is not settled soon, the only way the writers will not picket the Oscar festivities will be if the event is not telecast via network television or the Internet. The studios view the Oscars as a way to garner more box office receipts for the major projects, but this year it appears that smaller films--the products of the studios subsidiaries--will dominate the nominations. These are films like "No Country for Old Men," "There Will Be Blood," "Juno," "Michael Clayton," "Into the Wild" and "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly," but not the likes of "Atonement" and "Sweeney Todd." And these "smaller" films, the studios believe, don't get the box office "bump" from the Oscars that that the major products do. As a result, the studios don't really care if the Oscars are telecast.

So don't be surprised if the first five films I named in the previous paragraph are the best picture nominees.

It's also a tradition that the film that is the favorite of critics is rarely the favorite of Oscar voters. This year the critics' awards have been divided between "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood." Translation: Also don't be surprised if "Into the Wild" sweeps picture, director, supporting actor and supporting actress Oscars.

But I'll wait until after the nominations come out next week to really get into my predictions of the winners. Expect Film Critic Emeritus Philip Wuntch to weigh in on this subject as well. Between the two of us, we have covered a couple hundred Oscar ceremonies. In fact, the official count is Wuntch: a couple hundred; Oppel: 0.