Can't see Da Mayor winning a U.S. Senate race

Jim Schutze's column in the current Dallas Observer speculates about Da Mayor running for KBH's U.S. Senate seat when she resigns in a couple of months to make a run for the governor's mansion. Frankly, I'm convinced Da Mayor doesn't have a chance of winning election to the U.S. Senate and, if I read Mr. Schutze correctly (he offers a number of things Da Mayor has done that would alienate him with the right-wingnuts of the Texas GOP), neither does he.

One thing Mr. Schutze forgot to mention is that KBH's resignation does not trigger an election to chose her successor. In fact, the most likely scenario is that KBH resigns October-November and the election to fill out the remainder of her term doesn't take place until May. What happens in between is that Gov. Hair gets to appoint someone to fill the seat until an election can take place.

As I said yesterday, the word is that Gov. Hair will most likely appoint Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and even Mr. Schutze admits Da Mayor doesn't have a ghost of a chance running in an election against Dewhurst. Why? (1) As Mr. Schutze mentions in his column and as I pointed out yesterday, Dewhurst has all the money he needs to wage a successful campaign. (2) What Mr. Schutze neglected to mention is that, because of his appointment, he would be the incumbent in the race and it's damn difficult to beat an incumbent, even one who has only been in office seven months.

I also have the sneaking suspicion that state Sen. Florence Shapiro, R-Plano, has her eyes on KBH's Senate seat and, if that is true, she probably already has taken away much if not all of Da Mayor's fund-raising options. So where would Da Mayor's political support come from? As we know, Dallas County is now solidly Democratic, so not much help in Da Mayor's home area. Collin County and many of its neighboring counties are still solidly Republican, but those will go for Shapiro if she runs. Counties to the south are Dewhurst territory.

Would Da Mayor then run as a Democrat? That's doubtful. First, unless he changes his mind and runs for governor (which I hope he will), Houston Mayor Bill White will have the support of Texas Democrats in a Senate race. The question is whether White will try to run in the special election or wait for the next regular election when there will be party primaries.

I'm not saying Da Mayor won't resign and run for the U.S. Senate, but I am saying he is committing political suicide if he does. But he won't be the only one jumping off the cliff.