A first loook at this year's Oscar race

It's post-Labor Day which is the time I start forecasting the likely Oscar nomination picks for the year. My predictions are based on a poll I conduct of about 180 Oscar voters who have agreed to share their thoughts with me. What follows are the top five finishers in my most recent poll:

PICTURE
Milk
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Australia
Defiance
Frost/Nixon

DIRECTOR
Gus Van Sant, Milk
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Joe Wright, The Soloist
Edward Zwick, Defiance

ACTOR
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Benicio DelToro, Guerilla

ACTRESS
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Nicole Kidman, Australia
Sally Hawkins, Happy Go Lucky

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon
Robert Downey Jr., The Soloist
Josh Brolin, Milk
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Road

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kathy Bates, Revolutionary Road
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Amy Adams, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Vera Farmiga, Nothing But the Truth