It's now a two-film race

The Oscar nominations have yet to be announced (that will come Feb. 2) and already the best picture race is down to two films. Of course, that's better than this time last year when we all knew Slumdog Millionaire was going to be Oscars' big winner.

And this in a year when the best picture field has been doubled to 10 to incite more interest. It's a good thing, however, because the field could actually help provide a clue as to the winner.

Let me explain: First, the two front runners are The Hurt Locker and Avatar. I know, the Screen Actors Guild handed its equivalent of a best picture award to Inglourious Basterds, but that had to do more with the size of the cast than anything else. It appeared, after the Golden Globes and the box office results, that Avatar (or Avatanic as some wags are calling it) was running away with this contest. But then The Hurt Locker pulled off the stunning upset by winning the Producer's Guild Award over Avatar.

Here are two indicators to help you predict the winner. First, the Directors Guild announces its winner Saturday. If either Locker or Avatar win that award (and I'm predicting it will be Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker), than that film will have a leg up. Second, when the Oscar nominations are announced, check to see if either Star Trek or District 9 are among the best picture nominees. If neither are, that really helps Avatar's chances. If one or the other is, that movie could draw off enough sci-fi-minded voters away from Avatar to give The Hurt Locker a fighting chance. If both are nominated, Avatar is doomed.