The Bradley effect could doom Obama

Democrat Barack Obama has opened a nine-point lead over Republican John McCain in the current Presidential race, but many believe that lead may not be enough to overcome "the Bradley effect." And just what is the Bradley effect? It is the phenomenon in which voters, who would not want to be identified as racists, tell pollsters one thing, but vote another way in the privacy of the voting booths. It got its name from former black Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley. The first time Bradley ran for mayor, the polls had him 15 percentage points ahead of incumbent Sam Yorty three days before the election. Bradley lost that election 55 percent to 45 percent. In 1982, when Bradley ran for governor, polling had him 7 percentage points ahead the day before the general election. He lost by by 52,000 out of 7.5 million cast.

I encountered the Bradley effect personally in the late 1980s and early 1990s when Dallas was told it had to come up with a new system of governance that would enable more minorities to be elected to the City Council. The City came up with something called 10-4-1, which expanded the council from 11 to 15 members, with 10 being elected from single member districts, four elected from quadrants and the mayor elected at large. At least two council members, Mayor Annette Strauss and council member Harriet Miers, pushed for an idea they felt was more representative, 14 council members selected from single member districts and the mayor elected at large. The federal courts threw out 10-4-1 and ordered a referendum on the 14-1 plan. Mayor Strauss hired Ken Fairchild, Lisa LeMaster and I to conduct the campaign for the referendum (I spent many an afternoon and early evening at the Mayor's home on the corner of Inwood Road and Park Lane.)

Of course, we conducted regular polling which indicated 14-1 would pass without any problems. However, on election day, in the privacy of the voting booths, an overwhelming majority of Dallas voters voted "no." It failed. We discussed it afterwards and it was Mike Lindley, who is as astute a political observer as anyone I've ever known, who said the election was another example of Bradley effect, although I'm not certain he actually invoked Tom Bradley's name.

So what does that mean for Barack Obama? It means a significant number of individuals who are telling pollsters they will vote for the Democratic nominee will flinch when they get into the voting booth and will discover their prejudices will still not let them cast their ballot for a black man. I've heard people say Obama needs, at the minimum, a 10-point lead to have a comfortable Bradley effect cushion. And that's a shame.