Eddie Sefko's cloudy crystal ball

Dallas Morning News Mavericks beat writer Eddie Sefko, writing in an "Inside the Mavericks" newsletter that arrived by e-mail this morning, is predicting the Mavericks will win more games than last year, the Lakers will "have the Western Conference by the throat," and the Philadelphia 76ers will win the East.

But then he's also picking the Phillies to win the World Series, while I'm sticking with my Tampa Bay-in-six prediction. Yes, I know the Phillies won Game 1 last night, but I also predicted that and I think they will win Game 4 in Philadelphia (the two games lefty pitcher Cole Hamels starts for Philadelphia), but Tampa Bay takes Games 2, 3, 5 and 6.

But back to Sefko's basketball predictions. He says the Mavericks will win two more games than they did last year (53 as compared to 51), which may not seem like much, but, according to Sefko, "will put them right on the cusp of a home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs." I'm not going to argue the 53 versus 51 or whatever, because I haven't gone through the Mavs schedule game by game yet (I plan to do so perhaps this weekend). But if I see them on the cusp of anything, it's on the cusp of the lottery. The highest finish I can see for the Mavs is sixth in the Western Conference.

Here's what fuels my pessimism, if you want to call it that. Dirk Nowitzky and Jason Kidd are not good teammates. That was obvious last season when Avery Johnson built an offense around Dirk that emphasized the half-court game. Kidd was reduced to being a wing shooter. Now along comes new coach Rich Carlisle who wants to install a more movement-oriented, fast-break type of offense. All, well and good. That should really help Kidd, but at Dirk's detriment. Face it: The German is good, but he's slow. I find it difficult to believe the Mavericks are going to be a better team with an offense built around the adequate Kidd versus one built around the good Nowitzky.

As far as the Lakers' stranglehold on the Western Conference, even with a healthy Andrew Bynum, I don't think Kobe Bryant has the supporting cast to choke anyone except themselves, as they did in last season's NBA Finals. (Why is it that Lamar Odom seems to become the Invisible Man in big games?) Yes, the Lakers may still win the Western Conference, but I don't see them dominating as, say, the Boston Celtics dominated the Eastern Conference last season.

"In the Western Conference, everybody is infatuated with Houston and predicting San Antonio, Phoenix and Dallas are on the outs," Sefko wrote.

Hey, I'm one of those infatuated with Houston. I think the addition of Ron Artest makes the Rockets a solid contender. He can guard anyone in the league, he's a good passer and will help Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming with offensive production. He's a perfect fit with coach Rick Adelman's philosophy (remember Adelman offered to give up his salary if the Sacramento Kings kept Artest, which they didn't do). This is also Artest's contract year and he needs to play at his highest potential to secure the long-term deal he craves. The only weakness I see with Houston is at point guard, but with the addition of Brent Barry the Rockets don't need to rely so much on PG Rafer Alston.

And I'm not predicting San Antonio is on the outs. The medical problems associated with Manu Ginobili means the Spurs won't pose that much of a threat early in the season, but if Manu comes back healthy late this year or early in January, watch out for the Spurs come playoff time. I think they could actually win it all.

As for Philadelphia, Sefko said "the Sixers are going to win the Eastern Conference. Elton Brand deserves it after so many years of propping up the Los Angeles Clippers with his steady, classy play. Brand, Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller and Samuel Dalembert are going to make the Sixers formidable." I have the same problem with Philadelphia as I do with Dallas -- their parts don't mix. Brand is a half-court expert on a fast-break team. I see Boston, Cleveland, Detroit and Orlando finishing higher than Philadelphia.

Now, before anyone decides to cash the check I just finished writing, remember Sekfo follows basketball for a living, I just do it for the love of the game.