Is Dallas' optimism realistic

In a survey of more than 300 municipalities released last month, the National League of Cities reported that four out of five finance officers said their cities would be less able to meet needs in 2009 than this year. The group called the findings troubling, with no sign of getting better.

“This is the first time for at least two decades that all three major general tax sources — property, income and sales — have all declined at the same time,” said Michael A. Pagano, a co-author of the report and dean of the College of Urban Planning and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois, Chicago. “That’s the real frightening thing for cities.”

“It’s not like the 2000 or 1991 recessions; those hit the coasts first and flowed to the middle,” Dr. Pagano continued. “This one doesn’t differentiate between high-tech and low-tech cities, manufacturing towns or new exurbs.”

Los Angeles and Chicago are facing budget shortfalls in the $400 million range. New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg has ordered $1.5 billion in cuts during the next two fiscal years.

Even Tempe, Ariz., is looking to cut 75 to 100 city positions.

Yet, here in Dallas, we have an administration that keeps telling us "Everything is OK. Property values are going up. Sales tax revenues will increase. No problems here." I would really like to believe them, but ....