8th place, 7th place, what's the big deal?

Some folks are making a big deal out of the fact that the Mavericks probably will finish the season in 7th place in the NBA West versus 8th, thus avoiding a first round series with the dreaded and nearly invincible Los Angeles Lakers. To me, it's a difference between death by a firing squad or death by hanging. So now the Mavs lose a first round series to the second place team, not the first place team. Big deal.

I was talking with someone yesterday who claimed, however, "If that second place team is San Antonio, we might have a chance because the Spurs don't have Manu Ginobli." Naw! If it's one thing that Mavs have proved this year, it's that they can't win on the road against a team that has a better record and all the teams they'll face in the playoffs, where they won't have the home-court advantage, fit into that category. Besides, I think Denver, Portland and possibly Houston will finish the season 54-28 (to do that, the Rockets will have to whip Dallas here in the season's last game Wednesday, but that's possible) and it will be one of those teams the Mavericks will face. For San Antonio to finish 54-28, it must win on the road at Golden State and at home against the Hornets. That is highly probable, but the Warriors game on the road (Golden State has a winning record at home) without Ginobli could be problematic.

If all four finish 54-28, which could happen, the fist tie breaker is winning percentage among the four teams. According to my highly questionable calculations, the Rockets win that battle and wind up in second place. Those calculations also show that San Antonio has the worst winning percentage among those four teams, so I would forget any thoughts about playing the Spurs in the first round.

Of course, the Nuggets could make the entire argument moot by winning its final two games, but that would mean having to win at Portland and I don't think that's going to happen. I do think Portland wins its final two so a tie between Portland and Denver, at least, seems like a certainty.

Overall, however, I think it's great that all these questions are unanswered with just two games left in the season.