Spurs in 7

I would really love to see the Mavs win this series -- I'll be passionately rooting for them in every game -- but their road woes combined with the presence of Tony Parker for the Spurs leads me to believe San Antonio will take this series in seven hard-fought, close (I hope) games.

A lot of folks are saying the Mavs are entering the series with momentum on their side, that they are playing their best basketball of the season right now. I think that's an illusion, based on a blowout in Phoenix in a game that the Suns just phoned in. I think you also have to consider the second to the last game of the season, against Minnesota, that the Mavs needed a last-second shot from Jason Terry to pull out, plus their awful looking road (there's that word again) loss at New Orleans last Sunday. Besides, the Mavs won six of their last nine games last season and look how that helped them against the Hornets.

Then there's the Michael Finley karma factor. It was Finley's three-pointer as time expired that forced this matchup against his old team. Yes, we dumped Finley because Mavs owner Mark Cuban didn't want to pay the luxury tax on his contract. And who did we get to fill his roster spot? Jerry Stackhouse. So Finley propels his team to a division championship and what again has Stackhouse done for us lately?

The Mavs are also just too inconsistent for me. You never know which team -- the good one or the really awful one -- will show up on any given night. You can't be inconsistent in the playoffs.

Finally, there's the Tim Duncan factor. Yes, he's getting on in years, but he's still a quietly determined competitor who can drag the Spurs to a series win on sheer willpower. I still don't think a lot of people realize what a truly great basketball player Duncan has been over the years and continues to be.