I'm encouraged but ...

I'm absolutely ecstatic that the Mavericks took the first game in their best-of-seven series (when did the first round stop being best-of-five?) with the Spurs, but I must learn to temper my enthusiasm.

The Spurs won NBA championships in 2003, 2005 and 2007. In every single one of those playoffs, they lost their first game.

Then, in 2006, the year the Mavs went all the way to the title game, the Mavs lost their first game against the Spurs and then went on to win the series in seven games.

So, historically speaking, winning the first game in this scenario doesn't mean much. This scenario, however, is the exception to the rule. NBA teams who win the first game of a seven-game series win that series 78.8 percent of the time.

If the Mavs can find a way to win tonight, I might declare this series over (I might even get out the broom). If they lose tonight, but return to San Antonio up 3-1, I'll be wildly optimistic about their chances.

The real X-factor here is going to be Josh Howard. The Spurs have commited to shutting down Jason Terry (by double-teaming him off the pick-and-roll in Game 1, he only had eight field goal attempts and was seven points below his season average) and Dirk (sending an extra weakside defender on him limited him to 19 points). That means Howard is going to get secondary defensive attention (it seemed like Michael Finley was assigned to him in Game 1 and Finley to just too slow to make this work). I'm betting Spurs coach Greg Popovich will assign someone else to guard Howard tonight, which could be a good thing because that means the Spurs will be without Finley's offense. Howard just needs to play with the same drive and determination he showed in Saturday night's game.

I am also encouraged by the adjustments Rick Carlisle is making during the game, adjustments former coach Avery Johnson never attempted, for whatever reason.