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By PHILIP WUNTCH
Film Critic Emeritus
The highly opinionated Mr. Oppel is also frequently accurate, and his Saturday predictions of Oscar noms has the ring of reality.
But I feel he gives too much importance to "American Gangster." After the initial rush of the gangster epic wears off, viewers are left with a "been there, seen that" feeling that doesn't wear off. Those who saw DeNiro and Pacino in "Heat" recognize a recycling of formula. We should remember that "Saving Private Ryan" seemed a Best Picture lock in the '98 race, but voters apparently thought it recycled too many characters and situations seen in earlier films.
"Juno" could supplant "American Gangster" on the Best Picture ballot. It's both off-beat and "feel-good," a surefire combination for Oscar approval. Sidney Lumet could also knock "American Gangster"'s Ridley Scott off the Best Director roster. "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" has brought renewed interest in the 83-year-old Lumet's estimable career, which has won him many awards but no Best Director golden guy. Those who dwell in filmmaking circles fear aging more than most other humans, and Mr. Lumet's devilishly good movie provides comforting proof that an oldtimer need not fade away.
This leaves "American Gangster"'s best chance at an Oscar nod with Denzel Washington's magnetic performance. Magnetic, yes, but not quite as layered as his corrupt-cop Oscar-winning "Training Day" portrayal. Again, "been there, seen that."
Mr. Oppel and I are in complete agreement that, at least at this point, "Atonement" looms as an Oscar heavyweight. It promises an emotional mix of ill-fated love, wartime violence and poignant aftermaths. What's not to like? Besides, it's also got a sheen similar to those highly respected David Lean productions of the '50s and '60s. And history proves how much Academy voters admired the Lean sheen.
Among Best Actor candidates, consideration also should be given Emile Hirsch's "Into the Wild" portrayal. He's definitely an actor on the rise. Even more ascendant is Josh Brolin, whose intuitive Everyman anchored the superb "No Country for Old Men." And few performances were as moving as Benecio Del Toro's loyal drug addict in the unjustly neglected "Things We Lost in the Fire."
Philip Seymour Hoffman may find himself the recipient of nods in both male acting categories, frequently the kiss of death. But he definitely deserves a nod as lead actor in "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" and probably for the upcoming "The Savages." And his supporting performance in "Charlie Wilson's War" is engulfed in dynamic buzz.
Cate Blanchett probably won't have the same problem. She was the golden centerpiece of "Elizabeth: The Golden Age." But that film's tarnished reputation and box-office decline make a lead actress nod improbable. At this point, though, she's the probable supporting-actress winner for playing Bob Dylan (yes, that's right) in "I'm Not There." If so, she'll go down in trivia history as the actress who won Oscars for playing both Bob Dylan and Katharine Hepburn.
Among lead actress candidates, let's not underestimate Laura Linney. She's been outstanding even in less-than-outstanding movies. And "The Savages" has won honorable notices for both her performance and the film itself. Academy members may feel Ms. Linney should at last be given her due. Besides, her final Lady Macbeth moments in "Mystic River" still linger chillingly with viewers and voters.
While Javier Bardem's diabolical killer in "No Country for Old Men" is an undeniable frontrunner, Albert Finney should not be discounted. He invests the mourning husband and father in "Before the Devil Knows Your Dead" with intense, often inarticulate fury. Besides, he's had a long, strong career, without an Oscar to his name. Is his favor is the undeniable fact that over the last decades, the supporting-actor race has resembled a "career achievement" derby. (Sorry, Eddie Murphy, but it was Alan Arkin's turn last year.)
Although Ms. Blanchett's Dylan seems a lock in the supporting-actress ranks, Tilda Swinton could sneak in for her superb "Michael Clayton" showing as a nervous executive. She tries to hide her panic attacks, dress appropriately and present a good appearance, all the while sweet-talking herself into believing that she's doing the right thing.
Film Critic Emeritus
The highly opinionated Mr. Oppel is also frequently accurate, and his Saturday predictions of Oscar noms has the ring of reality.
But I feel he gives too much importance to "American Gangster." After the initial rush of the gangster epic wears off, viewers are left with a "been there, seen that" feeling that doesn't wear off. Those who saw DeNiro and Pacino in "Heat" recognize a recycling of formula. We should remember that "Saving Private Ryan" seemed a Best Picture lock in the '98 race, but voters apparently thought it recycled too many characters and situations seen in earlier films.
"Juno" could supplant "American Gangster" on the Best Picture ballot. It's both off-beat and "feel-good," a surefire combination for Oscar approval. Sidney Lumet could also knock "American Gangster"'s Ridley Scott off the Best Director roster. "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" has brought renewed interest in the 83-year-old Lumet's estimable career, which has won him many awards but no Best Director golden guy. Those who dwell in filmmaking circles fear aging more than most other humans, and Mr. Lumet's devilishly good movie provides comforting proof that an oldtimer need not fade away.
This leaves "American Gangster"'s best chance at an Oscar nod with Denzel Washington's magnetic performance. Magnetic, yes, but not quite as layered as his corrupt-cop Oscar-winning "Training Day" portrayal. Again, "been there, seen that."
Mr. Oppel and I are in complete agreement that, at least at this point, "Atonement" looms as an Oscar heavyweight. It promises an emotional mix of ill-fated love, wartime violence and poignant aftermaths. What's not to like? Besides, it's also got a sheen similar to those highly respected David Lean productions of the '50s and '60s. And history proves how much Academy voters admired the Lean sheen.
Among Best Actor candidates, consideration also should be given Emile Hirsch's "Into the Wild" portrayal. He's definitely an actor on the rise. Even more ascendant is Josh Brolin, whose intuitive Everyman anchored the superb "No Country for Old Men." And few performances were as moving as Benecio Del Toro's loyal drug addict in the unjustly neglected "Things We Lost in the Fire."
Philip Seymour Hoffman may find himself the recipient of nods in both male acting categories, frequently the kiss of death. But he definitely deserves a nod as lead actor in "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" and probably for the upcoming "The Savages." And his supporting performance in "Charlie Wilson's War" is engulfed in dynamic buzz.
Cate Blanchett probably won't have the same problem. She was the golden centerpiece of "Elizabeth: The Golden Age." But that film's tarnished reputation and box-office decline make a lead actress nod improbable. At this point, though, she's the probable supporting-actress winner for playing Bob Dylan (yes, that's right) in "I'm Not There." If so, she'll go down in trivia history as the actress who won Oscars for playing both Bob Dylan and Katharine Hepburn.
Among lead actress candidates, let's not underestimate Laura Linney. She's been outstanding even in less-than-outstanding movies. And "The Savages" has won honorable notices for both her performance and the film itself. Academy members may feel Ms. Linney should at last be given her due. Besides, her final Lady Macbeth moments in "Mystic River" still linger chillingly with viewers and voters.
While Javier Bardem's diabolical killer in "No Country for Old Men" is an undeniable frontrunner, Albert Finney should not be discounted. He invests the mourning husband and father in "Before the Devil Knows Your Dead" with intense, often inarticulate fury. Besides, he's had a long, strong career, without an Oscar to his name. Is his favor is the undeniable fact that over the last decades, the supporting-actor race has resembled a "career achievement" derby. (Sorry, Eddie Murphy, but it was Alan Arkin's turn last year.)
Although Ms. Blanchett's Dylan seems a lock in the supporting-actress ranks, Tilda Swinton could sneak in for her superb "Michael Clayton" showing as a nervous executive. She tries to hide her panic attacks, dress appropriately and present a good appearance, all the while sweet-talking herself into believing that she's doing the right thing.
Believe me, Hollywood can relate to nervous executives.
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