Oscar Nomination Scorecard II

These results are based on polling of Oscar voters who are asked to rank their nominees in order of preference, just like the actual Oscar nomination process works. This time around I have not included the screenplay and technical categories and concentrated on those most people care about. The first percentage number listed is the percent of the total points the entry received. The percentage in parenthesis reflects the change plus (+) or minus (-) from that entry's percentage two weeks ago. The results

Picture

"No Country for Old Men" has, on the strength of a number of critics' awards, jumped into the lead over "Atonement." "Juno" has also picked up a lot of support, but the movie that really seems to be gaining momentum is "Sweeney Todd." "Sweeney" has opened to sterling reviews and could really pick up steam when it goes into wider release at the end of the year. It is kind of the reverse of last year's musical, "Dreamgirls," which started the season as the Oscar favorite (largely because of its year-long Oscar campaign) and faded mightily as the season wore on. "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" also increased dramatically, but, unlike "Sweeney," I don't expect it to climb higher in the coming pollings. In somewhat of a surprise, "Michael Clayton" is getting a lot of renewed interest, possibly because films voters were expecting to be contenders (i.e. "Charlie Wilson's War") aren't what they promised to be, so voters are going back to earlier films like "Clayton." Support for "American Gangster" is rapidly falling. The current standings:

No Country for Old Men 26.9% (+ 9%)
Atonement 24.6% (- 5.6%)
Juno 12.2% (+ 6%)
Sweeney Todd 9% (+ 1.6%)
There Will Be Blood 6.6% (- 3.9%)
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly 6.1% (+ 5.8%)
Michael Clayton 5.7% (+ 3.8%)
American Gangster 3.1% ( - 8.6%)
Into the Wild 2.3% (- 2%)

Others receiving mentions (in order of points scored): "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead," "Zodiac," "Once," "The Kite Runner," "In the Valley of Elah" and "Grace Is Gone."

Director

Mirroring the best picture race, the Coens have taken the favorite's spot from Joe Wright. But while "Juno" is third in the picture balloting, its director, Jason Reitman, is an also-ran. Tim Burton, Julian Schnabel and Sidney Lumet all picked up additional support in this polling period while Ridley Scott is falling like the picture he directed.

Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men 28.9% (+ 9%)
Joe Wright: Atonement 17.2% (- 9.57%)
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd 11.5% (+ 4.7%)
Paul Thomas Anderson: There Will Be Blood 10.6% (- 3.1%)
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly 10.2% (+ 8.3%)
Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead 5.3% (+ 2.8%)
Ridley Scott, American Gangster 5.2% (- 10.3%)
Sean Penn, Into the Wild 4.7% (- 0.3%)
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton 2% (+ 2%)

Others receiving mentions (in order of points scored): Mike Nichols, "Charlie Wilson's War"; Jason Reitman, "Juno"; David Fincher, "Zodiac"; Sarah Polley, "Away From Her"; Todd Haynes, "I'm Not There"; David Cronenberg, "Eastern Promises."

Actor

The surprise here is George Clooney jumping into third place, although Daniel Day-Lewis continues to have a stranglehold on this category. James McAvoy and Tommy Lee Jones each lost a lot of support, although McAvoy still looks to be a good bet for the fifth nominee. Watch out for Frank Langella, however, especially if his film can be seen by more voters.

Daniel Day Lewis: There Will Be Blood 28.1% (- 1.1%)
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd 17.3% (+ 0.5%)
George Clooney, Michael Clayton 14% (+ 9.7%)
Denzel Washington, American Gangster 12.4% (- 3.1%)
James McAvoy, Atonement 9.6% (- 7.8%)
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah 3.1% (- 4.4%)
Frank Langella, Starting Out in the Evening 3% (+ 3%)
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises 2.4% (- 1.3%)
Josh Brolin, No Country for Old Men 2.3% (+ 2.3%)
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild 2.1% (+ 0.9%)

Others receiving mentions (in order of points scored): John Cusack, "Grace Is Gone"; Benicio Del Toro, "Things We Lost in the Fire"; Don Cheadle, "Talk to Me"; Brad Pitt, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"; Tom Hanks, Charlie Wilson's War"; Mathieu Almaric, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"; Casey Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"; Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"; Will Smith, "I am Legend"; Sam Riley, "Control"; Tony Leung, "Lust, Caution."

Actress

Based largely on her critics awards, Julie Christie has jumped from third to first, but just barely in front of Marion Cotillard. Right now I'm betting the top four in this category are all locks for nominations and the race is for the fifth spot. It's also interesting to note that Helena Bonham Carter, who registered strongly in the supporting category for her "Sweeney" role in the last polling, did better this time in the lead category.

Julie Christie, Away From Her 26.6% (+ 8.7%)
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose 26.1% (+ 0.2%)
Ellen Page, Juno 17.9% (- 3.7%)
Keira Knightley, Atonement 10.2% (- 1.57%)
Amy Adams, Enchanted 6.8% (no change)
Laura Linney, The Savages 5.8% (- 0.4%)
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart 2.6% (+ 0.1%)
Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd 2.5% (+ 2.5%)

Others receiving mentions (in order of points scored): Marketa Irglova, "Once"; Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"; Wang Tei, "Lust, Caution"; Nicole Kidman, "Margot at the Wedding."

Supporting Actor

Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men 31% (+ 0.2%)
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild 16.8% (+ o.8%)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War 16% (+ 4.9%)
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton 14.4% (- 2.9%)
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford 9.8% (- 0.5%)
Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood 4.5% (- 1.1%)

Others receiving mentions (in order of points scored): Philip Bosco, "The Savages"; Tommy Lee Jones, "No Country for Old Men"; Robert Downey Jr., "Zodiac"; Max Von Sydow, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"; Ben Foster, "3:10 to Yuma"; Albert Finney, "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"; Jack Black, "Margot at the Wedding"; John Travolta, "Hairspray"; Sacha Baron Cohen, "Sweeney Todd"; Ed Harris, "Gone Baby Gone"; Russell Crowe, "American Gangster."

Supporting Actress

The major news here is the big jump by Amy Ryan who is now giving once-runaway frontrunner Cate Blanchett a contest. It's also going to be interesting to see who might get the fifth spot in this category in a race between the rookie (Jennifer Garner) and the veteran (Ruby Dee).

Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There 27.3% (- 5%)
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone 24.2% (+ 9.9%)
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton 15.3% (+ 5.4%)
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement 12.9% (- 0.8%)
Jennifer Garner, Juno 3.5% (+ 3.5%)
Ruby Dee, American Gangster 2.8% (+ 2.8%)
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement 2.4% (- 2.6%)

Others receiving mentions (in order of points scored): Helena Bonham Carter, "Sweeney Todd"; Jennifer Jason Leigh, "Margot at the Wedding"; Marisa Tomei, "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"; Romola Garai, "Atonement"; Marie-Josee Croze, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"; Emmanuelle Seigner, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"; Catherine Keener, "Into the Wild"; Meryl Streep, "Lions for Lambs"; Olympia Dukakis, "Away From Her."